If you focus on the downside risk, the upside return will take care of itself




Monday 16 August 2010

Full Steam Ahead...

Dear Readers,

Having lost my frame of reference over the last few weeks due to a wicked cocktail of agonising back pain and prescribed hard drugs, I awoke this morning not to the scream of a thousand different echos, but to a gentle melody that led me to a window with an interesting view....

What great and rapid changes are happening in the world today and how they are affecting the world we live in. The beauty of a free enterprise system is evolving in front of our eyes. We are living it. We are making it. But most importantly, we must appreciate and react to it if you wish to eat its fruits.

Only in the first few seconds of picking up a few newspapers and my head hurts from its pounding footsteps...

Dodd - Frank reform affecting the marked to market valuation of GE capital assets. This needs us to have a clear appreciation and an immediate re valuation of what we feel the company is worth and how the market may react to sudden write downs through its income statement. We were past buyers of this stock in mid 2009 and if the opportunity seems appropriate due to the markets reaction - we will buy more. We must be ready to react appropriately. If we feel the companies current value is fairly priced, we shall sale (the position is currently profitable).

Large Pharma investigation by the Department of Justice. Glaxo could be implicated as are Pfizer, Merck and a range of others. The grounds are based on bribery charges from selling value products to governments (i..e think of any state owned European health institution!). You can imagine the size of this lawsuit if that was true! In reality it is a little dirtier than that and probably will require us to limit the size of pharma exposure in our portfolios until we appreciate the true extent and agenda of this case. At this point in time we are happy with our portfolios approximate 15% exposure to healthcare. We remain intimate shareholders of Sanofi Aventis, Glaxosmithkline and Astellas Pharmaceuticals.


Yours sincerely,

Alessandro Sajwani

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