If you focus on the downside risk, the upside return will take care of itself




Sunday 27 March 2011

Globalisation & Oil

If oil was to reach a price of 300 USD per barrel, would globalisation continue?

Would the movement of goods between countries across seas and lands be profitable? For many companies that import goods from abroad, the answer would be no. Hence external trade would fall drastically if oil prices kept going up.

A high oil price is the ultimate lucky break for pro protectionist followers. A high oil price would increase the trade deficit initially for countries that import oil or import goods from abroad, but eventually it will force economies to adapt.

Countries would be forced to become more self sufficient. Advanced countries would invest more in energy efficient technology and alternative energy supplies.

A high oil price is the rebellious child of globalisation.

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