If you focus on the downside risk, the upside return will take care of itself




Sunday 13 November 2011

Current asset allocation

Cash

In different currencies to offer diversifiaction and spread the economic risk and "government reaction" risk
We hold EUR, USD, GBP, JPY, HKD, CAD

Bonds

Little exposure to a few investment grade short term positions (<3 years)and a few perpetuals (tier 1, some have a few lower tier 2)

Equity

Most of our capital is allocated here. If currencies weaken (our cash) the equities will rise. If equities fall our cash will be worth more. Mainly non cyclical high quality stock paying dividends at least x3 current cash rate

We also hold the equity of companies involved in the oil and timber business to have indirect exposure to commodities

We classify portfolio by strategies and asset classes

Cash (base currency)
Cash non base currency Currently very popular
Bonds
Cyclical equity
Non cyclical equity
Commodities Currently very popular
Macro strategies

Net nets
Asset plays
Cheap defined free cash flows
High quality
Cheap normalised earning power
Cheap earning power (a reason the company is disliked which is not permenant)
Turnaround
Growth

On a simple cyclical view of the DM economies. This is a time to have at least 50% in equities. People fear debt destruction can cause a deep panic. It will. It will create losses and slow down the economy. The destruction of capital in debt will also destory capital in equity for the economy. You need to make sure it is not your equity that gets destroyed.

Cash/equities we are 40/60

If governments print money this allocation will be enjoyed. If there is a serious of debt destruction events than we will suffer heavily in the short and maybe even the medium term.

But we will have cash in hand to make it work

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