If you focus on the downside risk, the upside return will take care of itself




Saturday, 17 September 2011

Comparing potential cash outflow in 5 years to current market cap

I noted in a recent article published by Bestinver that they place importance on comparing the market cap of the company relative to the cash and cash equivalent assets of the company a number of years in the future (2012 in this example).

We like this approach.

If we take a companies net assets and modify their value to current valuations (conservatively), and then add the free cash flow we feel can be achieved over the next 5 years, we can compare this sum to the market cap at the moment.

For example a company that achieves a 20% return on equity consistently that has a conservatively valued balance sheet and can be bought for x2 book would be good value under this approach. If they held hidden assets on their balance sheet it could be an exceptional investment.

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